It looks like tomorrow will be a possibly explosive day in the central plains, with Kansas being under the gun for severe storms. We are just south of Grand Island, NE tonight getting ready for a long day tomorrow. The SPC has a good chunk of Kansas under a moderate risk for severe storms for Thursday. Right now I’m liking an area somewhere from Hill City, down to about Greensburg, KS. Yes, Greensburg is of course the site of the EF-5 tornado last year. You can keep track of us on spotternetwork.org and also on severestreaming.com/livechase
Technical discussion:
The big h5 trof out to our West is starting to eject onto the plains. A Warm front will move northward through the afternoon tomorrow ending up somewhere right around the KS/NE border by early evening. Also, a nice sharp Dryline will be moving east through C KS as well. We’re planning to set up on the nose of the DL as storm motion will be to the north so I’m hoping we can get something to root in the boundary. I think storms will move across the WF too fast to TOR. I’m wondering about the 00Z NAM though as it doesn’t break out any precip on the DL until 6Z, well after dark. Will this be another after-dark monster tornado maker? I’m wondering…. Anyways, I’m also worrying that the h5 winds don’t really veer until around 0z and I think that storms will be going by then… I’m not excited by the hodographs until later in the day, and I worry precip will be going by then. Parameters look otherwise good though. SIGTOR is insane, CAPE is great, LCL’s look good, we just need to winds to work out a bit.
Target:
Hays to La Crosse, KS, possibly needing to move south toward Greensburg.